Jobs Glossary: CPS, CES, Participation and More

Core terms

• CPS: household survey (rate)
• CES: payroll survey (jobs)
• Participation: share working/seeking
• U-6: broad underuse
• Nonfarm: all but farm jobs
• Revision: updated prior data

Find each live

Rates and levels update monthly on the hub.

Deep dive: reading labor data like an economist

Start with payrolls direction, confirm with the rate, complete with participation. A falling rate with falling participation is weakness wearing strength clothes. Watch prime-age (25–54) participation — the cleanest slack gauge. Sector mix decides local reality: manufacturing-heavy states swing with cycles while government/eds-meds states glide. Revisions routinely rewrite the story two months later, so trade trends (3-month averages), never prints.

• Payrolls = direction
• Rate = tightness
• Participation = honesty check
• Wages = confirmation

Case files: tight vs loose markets

Dakotas-style sub-3% markets hand seekers leverage but thin options; coastal rollers offer depth with competition. Match YOUR sector tightness, not the headline.

Advanced tactics

• Track 3-month payroll averages
• Watch participation, not just rate
• Sector mix over statemixtitles
• Build pipeline before need

Glossary deep cuts

• U-3 vs U-6 breadth
• Labor force vs population
• Benchmark revisions yearly
• Diffusion index breadth

Unemployment path visual

National rate trajectory — context for every local number.

Source: lifeindexdata.com · © 2026 LifeIndexData · Unemployment rate, recent months (%)

State spotlights: labor landscapes

Five hiring markets decoded.

• Texas: energy/tech/medical breadth; business-friendly hiring. Best for: engineers, nurses, trades.
• California: tech cyclicality plus healthcare constancy. Best for: software, medical, logistics.
• Florida: tourism volume plus finance/healthcare climb. Best for: health, hospitality management, trades.
• New York: finance/media peaks plus upstate value. Best for: finance, media, medical.
• Colorado: aerospace/tech plus federal stability. Best for: engineers, analysts.

Year-in-review method: auditing your career

Score employability yearly: skills currency, network warmth (two intros/month?), comp ratio, and relocation optionality. Any two red flags trigger a 90-day sprint: one credential, ten target firms, weekly outreach. Careers compound like portfolios — small yearly edges dominate decade outcomes.

• Skills currency check
• Network warmth metric
• Comp ratio review
• Relocation optionality

Expert roundup: what labor economists watch

Prime-age participation over headline rate, payroll diffusion over single prints, quits rate for leverage truth. Households translate: switch when quits are high, skill up when participation rises, move where diffusion spreads.

The complete job-search operating system

Run search like a pipeline: 20 target firms, 3 warm intros weekly, 5 tailored applications, 1 skill artifact monthly. Track conversion at each stage — application→screen (~10–20% healthy), screen→onsite (~30%), onsite→offer (~20–30%). Diagnose the bottleneck stage instead of spraying harder. Timebox to 90-day sprints with weekly reviews; pipelines compound while wishes do not. Keep employed leverage longest: search while paid beats searching while desperate by every measurable outcome.

• 20 targets, 3 intros, 5 apps weekly
• Funnel metrics per stage
• 90-day sprints with reviews
• Artifact monthly (proof of skill)

Sector rotation playbook

Early-cycle: housing, autos, tech hiring rebounds first. Mid-cycle: broad services and manufacturing fill. Late-cycle: healthcare and government hold while cyclicals shed. Position 6–12 months ahead: skill into next-phase sectors while employed, never after layoffs cluster.

Interview preparation system

Five rounds deep: screen, hiring manager, panel, executive, close — prep per round with stories mapped to competencies. STAR bank of 12 stories covering leadership, conflict, failure, data, ambiguity and velocity. Questions that reveal: attrition reasons, success metrics at 90 days, manager 1:1 cadence, promotion velocity stats, budget trajectory.

• 12-story STAR bank built
• Round-specific prep sheets
• Questions that expose reality
• Follow-up within 24h with value-add
• References briefed, not surprised

Offer comparison worksheet: 12 lines

Score every offer identically or bias wins.

• Base vs band position
• Bonus target × history
• Equity grant/vesting/refresh
• Retirement match + vest
• Health premium + deductible
• PTO + holidays + sick
• Remote/hybrid reality
• Manager quality signals
• Promotion velocity
• Severance terms
• Non-compete scope
• Start date + review date

Layoff survival protocol

File day one, pipeline day two, bridge income week one. Severance negotiated (yes, negotiable): extended healthcare, outplacement, reference letter, non-disparagement mutual. Never sign same-day.

Sector rotation reference

Where hiring leads and lags across a full cycle — position 6–12 months ahead, never after layoffs cluster.

Research notes: continuing claims vs initial

Initial claims spike first on shocks; continuing claims show duration pain. Sahm rule (0.5pt rise in 3-mo unemployment average) has called every modern recession — watch it, not headlines. State insured-unemployment rates lead local softness months before national prints.

• Initial = shock speed
• Continuing = pain depth
• Sahm 0.5pt rule
• State insured rates lead

Resume systems that pass ATS

Mirror posting keywords verbatim (systems match literally), quantify every bullet (%, $, time), one page per decade (two max), skills section mirroring the req list, PDF with selectable text (no tables/images/headers). Referral attached beats perfect resume alone — 40%+ of hires trace to intros.

• Keyword mirroring literal
• Every bullet quantified
• Selectable-text PDF
• Referral over polish

Interview loops decoded

Screens filter for baseline; hiring managers test scope stories; panels probe collaboration and conflict; executives test judgment and trajectory. Prepare 12 STAR stories mapped to competencies, plus insightful questions per round (budget, attrition, success metrics, manager cadence). Close every round: ask concerns, address live.

Offer evaluation beyond salary

Score vesting schedules, review cycles, promotion velocity data, manager quality signals, team attrition, budget trajectory, and non-compete scope. A 10% higher base with 2-year cliff vesting and toxic attrition loses to steady comp with growth — model 3-year totals, not day-one numbers.

Quitting protocol

Resign after signed offer + background pass, never on verbal. Two weeks minimum, knowledge transfer documented, bridges preserved (boomerang hires pay premiums). File unemployment same week if eligible; roll 401k deliberately, never cash out.

• Signed + cleared first
• Transfer docs complete
• Bridges preserved
• 401k rolled, not cashed